Banking and financial analysis company JPMorgan Chase & Co. has crunched the numbers on the current state of the economy, and the result is worrying.
By JPMorgan’s estimate, the United States has a 28% chance of entering a recession within the next year. That doesn’t sound terrible on its own, but for a two year projection, that percentage more than doubles to 60%. This means we have less than a 50/50 shot of dodging a recession in 2020.
JPMorgan assembled their model based on factors including (but not limited to) general consumer and business sentiments, labor participation statistics, compensation growth, and gross domestic product shares. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York made their own recession estimate recently, though theirs held at a more optimistic 14.5% chance for a year. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke made a statement several months ago about the potential long-term hazards of the $1.5 trillion tax cut. We may now begin seeing the ramifications of that cut.
