One of Europe’s major currencies is in dire straits.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, economic difficulties have rippled outward across all of the European Union, hitting eastern Europe the hardest. As these problems have affected the entire European Union, they have, in turn, resulted in a weakening of the euro. Not only is this problematic from a basic economic standpoint, but a euro recession could also lead to a weakening of Europe’s other major currencies.
At the start of trading today, traders were reluctant to deal with several of Europe’s major currencies, including the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty and Czech koruna. In fact, the only currencies that traders are currently more reluctant to deal with right now are the Russian ruble and Turkish lira.
“We are cautious and negative on eastern European currencies,” Paul Greer, a money manager at Fidelity International, told Bloomberg. He added that the region “is the most vulnerable bloc within emerging markets in the currency space.”
— Reuters (@Reuters) August 8, 2022
“Europe is far more vulnerable at this stage, so it’s reasonable to assume that the central and eastern currencies will underperform, especially if euro-dollar falls,” said Piotr Matys, a senior currency analyst at InTouch Capital Markets.
EU countries have been enacting various monetary policies, as well as increasing their rates of global export, in order to keep the value of the euro and other currencies afloat, but this process has proven to be a major drain on resources. If the euro officially slides into recession territory, it’s only a matter of time before the forint, zloty, and koruna follow it down.