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Tesla is back in the spotlight — not for its cars, not for Elon Musk’s political tangents, but for something potentially much bigger: robotaxis. As Wall Street shifts focus from a rocky first quarter to the company’s upcoming June launch of autonomous vehicles in Austin, the key question investors are asking is simple: Is Tesla stock a buy or a sell right now?
From Stumble to Sizzle: The Q1 Wake-Up Call
Tesla’s first-quarter numbers weren’t exactly thrilling. Revenue dropped 9% to $19.3 billion, earnings per share plummeted 40%, and operating income — once you take out regulatory credits — actually turned into a loss.
That’s not the kind of report that usually sends a stock flying.
Yet here we are: Tesla (TSLA) is up more than 17% this past week alone, recently closing at $349.98, and making a solid push above its 200-day moving average.
Why? Because the numbers, as Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put it, weren’t the main story. Musk was.
Robotaxis Take Center Stage
On the earnings call, Elon Musk assured investors that a new chapter is beginning — one filled with robotaxis, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots.
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomy,” Musk said, revealing that a pilot robotaxi service in Austin will begin in June, starting with a small fleet of Model Ys.
He’s also dialing down his involvement with the Trump administration’s DOGE office, a move analysts saw as a way to minimize brand damage — especially after recent surveys showed nearly 70% of Americans wouldn’t consider buying a Tesla, with many citing Musk himself as the reason.
So, What’s Actually Coming?
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Robotaxi Launch (June 2025): Starting small with 10-20 vehicles in Austin, based on unsupervised autonomous Model Ys.
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CyberCab and Robovan: Showcased, but details were thin. Production is expected before 2027.
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Affordable EVs: A scaled-down Model Y/3 will debut soon, but there’s no brand-new model line — just cheaper variants of existing cars.
That lack of new models has analysts raising concerns. Cheaper versions could cannibalize demand for Tesla’s pricier cars.
Analyst Opinions: Mixed but Watching Closely
Despite the financial struggles, major analysts like those from Piper Sandler, Benchmark, and CFRA are holding on to their bullish long-term outlooks — especially with the robotaxi story unfolding. Price targets range from $350 to $400, and many see June as a pivotal month.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest went even further. They recently reiterated a bold $2,600 price target by 2029 — assuming robotaxis take off. Without them? The target drops to $350.
That’s a big “if.”
Risks That Can’t Be Ignored
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Brand Damage: Musk’s political stances and public comments continue to polarize potential customers — particularly in Europe and among U.S. independents and Democrats.
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Regulatory Roadblocks: U.S. safety regulators are scrutinizing Tesla’s autonomy claims, especially following accidents tied to Smart Summon and self-driving features. The NHTSA wants more info on how the robotaxi system handles poor visibility.
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Global Backlash: Tesla is already facing retaliation for Trump tariffs in Canada and possibly the UK, which could impact EV rebates and sales.
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Shrinking Profits: 2025 earnings estimates have been slashed from $2.58 to $2.10 per share. That would mark Tesla’s third straight year of earnings decline.
The Technical Picture
Tesla stock is showing strong momentum. After clearing its 200-day line and jumping more than 22% in May, it’s extended above recent buy zones. That means new investors might want to wait for a pullback before jumping in — unless they’re okay with a more aggressive entry.
Tesla’s Composite Rating is 76, with a Relative Strength Rating of 94 — meaning the stock is outperforming most of the market — but its EPS Rating of 58 suggests underlying earnings strength isn’t what it used to be.
So… Is Tesla Stock a Buy or Sell?
Here’s the bottom line:
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Buy if you believe Tesla can pull off autonomous driving at scale, and you’re investing with a long-term view (think 3-5 years).
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Sell or hold if you’re cautious about short-term risks — regulatory scrutiny, brand damage, soft earnings, and global trade tensions.
Tesla remains one of the most innovative — and volatile — stocks on the market. If you’re bullish on autonomy and robotics, this may be a once-in-a-decade moment. If you’re looking for stability and earnings clarity, consider parking your capital elsewhere for now.
The robotaxi revolution is just weeks away. Whether it’s the start of Tesla’s next great run or another overhyped Musk promise remains to be seen — but it’s going to be a wild ride.
