Economists say Recession Could Come by End of 2022

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Economic conditions are entering into a worrying state.

In the last few weeks, fears have begun to surface of another potential recession striking the United States economy. Economists have been working to determine if this threat is credible, and if it is, when exactly it could begin in full. More optimistic outlooks (relatively speaking) place the recession sometime in 2024, but critical eyes say we could experience the beginnings of this state as soon as the end of the year.

“With rapidly slowing growth momentum and a Fed committed to restoring price stability, we believe a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 is now more likely than not,” economists Aichi Amemiya and Robert Dent of Nomura Holdings Inc. said in a note to investors picked up by Bloomberg.

“With monthly inflation through 2022 likely to remain elevated, we believe the Fed response to the downturn will initially be muted.”

As supply chain issues continue, compounded by existing problems such as rising prices on necessities like food, gas, and housing, consumer confidence is on the decline. People are feeling more incentivized to save money than spend it, which means less money circulating through the US economy. Any moves toward remedying this may be hampered by high inflation.

This sentiment echoes one made by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday. Yellen said that high prices will likely continue to affect the consumer populace until the end of 2022 at least, and at its current trajectory, it will likely take at least a few years for inflation rates to drop back to ideal levels.

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11 months ago