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Ontario Premier’s Tariff and Shutoff Threat Raises Questions About Energy Stability
A high-stakes energy standoff is brewing between Canada and the United States as Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to increase surcharges or cut off electricity exports to three U.S. states—New York, Michigan, and Minnesota—if American tariffs on Canadian goods remain in place.
The move comes as Canada retaliates against a 25% tariff imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian and Mexican imports. In response, the Canadian government has launched counter-tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. goods, including electricity.
How Serious is the Threat to U.S. States?
Ford’s warning, issued on social media, put leaders in the affected states “on notice” that Ontario is prepared to add a 25% surcharge or halt electricity exports altogether. The implications could be significant, as parts of the U.S. power grid rely on Canadian energy.
🚨🚨MAJOR BREAKING
PREMIER OF ONTARIO TO SHUTOFF POWER TO 1.5 MILLION CUSTOMERS IN NEW YORK, MICHIGAN AND MINNESTOA
"If he wants to destroy our families, im going after absolutely everything" pic.twitter.com/KEi0IlLAFg
— Tablesalt 🇨🇦 (@Tablesalt13) March 3, 2025
New York: The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) has acknowledged the deep interconnection between U.S. and Canadian power grids. The organization warned that any disruption in cross-border electricity flow could affect grid stability, potentially leading to power shortages or increased costs for consumers.
Michigan: Although Michigan imports electricity from Ontario, much of it is transmitted beyond state lines into the broader Eastern Interconnection grid. While experts say Michigan residents may not experience immediate blackouts, they could face higher energy prices and reliability concerns.
Minnesota: Regional power officials in Minnesota have downplayed Ford’s threat, suggesting the state may not face immediate or severe consequences. However, with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) already identifying the region as high risk for power shortages, even a slight disruption could further strain an already fragile system.
A Bigger Issue for Energy Security
Experts warn that restricting power exports could destabilize both U.S. and Canadian grids, given their highly interconnected nature. The Lake Erie flow loop, a key transmission pathway, plays a major role in balancing supply and demand across borders. Disruptions could make both countries more vulnerable to blackouts, price spikes, and strained energy infrastructure.
Dan Scripps, chair of the Michigan Public Service Commission, expressed concern over potential long-term reliability issues. “This power flow benefits both sides of the border. Any disruption could impact grid stability,” he said.
What Happens Next?
With Canada’s retaliatory tariffs taking effect immediately, it remains unclear whether Ontario will follow through on its electricity surcharge or shutoff threat. Leaders from affected states, utility companies, and power grid operators are closely monitoring the situation.
For now, energy consumers in New York, Michigan, and Minnesota should prepare for possible changes in their electricity costs and reliability as this international standoff unfolds.
